For all the flack that Red Sox Baseball operations get, the pitching staff should not be one of them.  Sure, Sale is out again, and we lost Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers in free agency, but the pitching staff is going to be fine.  Let’s look at the numbers. 

Eleven games into 2022 the pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA, with 4 pitchers playing at below replacement level.  Two of them, Nick Pivetta and Nathan Eovaldi, were worth 2.1 and 5.6 Wins respectively last year.  An abbreviated spring training is reigning havoc on baseball during the early part of the season, and this is going to be especially true for pitchers, who report to camp days earlier than everyone else.  This is shown most easily in their HR/FB numbers, where Brasier, Eovaldi, and Pivetta have 33.3%, 35.7%, and 33.3%.  That comes from a miss in location.  

Eovaldi’s main issues have been the periodic bad pitch that has been hammered.   This equates to home runs, and he has let up 6 so far in 14.2 innings pitched.  One has to wonder how much of the blame lands on Eovaldi’s feet, as opposed to an opening day start against what would turn out to be locked in Rizzo and Stanton in New York.  Looking at spin rate, velocity, and break numbers on Baseball Savant shows consistent numbers with the last few years.  The lone run he allowed on Tuesday night against Toronto came off a Zack Collins home run.  How hot has Collins been to start 2022?  His OPS is 1.229.  

As for Pivetta, this is who this guy is.  An inning eater starting pitcher at slightly above replacement level who is going to have some bad days.  The thing is, that’s what the Red Sox needs.  When it comes to starting pitchers, you want your aces, you love your aces, but your aces cost you money.  Cole will cost the Yankees $36 million a year until his age 37 season.  Scherzer costs the Mets $43.3 a year, Degrom $36, Bauer was $35.3 before his “leave”.  For a fanbase still stomaching having to give up Mookie Betts due to financial constraints (thanks Dougie for making that easier), not overpaying for wins out of a starting pitcher should feel good.  

You’ll notice the thing I haven’t brought up yet is the bullpen.  That is, of course, because 11 games into a season isn’t enough time to get a good feel for the bullpen.  It might be enough for fans to have made their decisions on Kutter Crawford, who has had 4 outings, 2 of which were very bad.  His five walk, 2 hit outing against the Twins on Patriots day took a game that was close and made it very not.  My issue with  this is not Crawford himself, but why was he left in so long?  He clearly did not have it that day, and only after too much time had passed did Alex Cora go to the pen.  Cora is a smart manager, how he handled the bullpen in ‘18 is a big reason why the Sox won that year.  It is curious why we seemed not to be playing for the win on Monday.  Was the bullpen gassed?  Are we worried about too many innings after a shortened spring training?  Do we think Crawford just needs more experience to get better?  Cora has always been big on giving his players confidence.  Knowing that your manager trusts you might be what you need to perform.  Having the game slip away from you, unable to find the zone and get outs could be what you need to regress.  

Austin Davis has also struggled early, walking 10% of batters faced and earning a 6.75 ERA.  He hasn’t commanded well, and conventional wisdom suggest he will be the one sent down when Josh Taylor completes his rehab assignments.  Taylor pitched in Worcester on Sunday and seems to be on the road to recovery.  The Sox will have to pick two more pitchers to be sent down, as roster sizes drop by 28 to 26 starting May 1st.  

That is not to say the bullpen has been without its highlights.  Hanser Robles, Jake Diekman, Phillips Valdez and Garrett Whitlock have all been immense.  Valdez, Robles, and Whitlock have a LOB% of 100, allowing no inherited runners to score.  Robles himself has been very good, the red sox best statistical pitcher so far, with a 28% K rate and a BABIP, standing for Batting Average for Balls In Play of 0.91, meaning when the opposition does make contact, it is poor contact.  Whitlock, who I have spoken at length before, has more innings under his belt than every starting pitcher besides Eovaldi.  His multi inning outings, where he still maintains a 31% K rate will do that.  So far he has only been used in the traditional closer role once, last night against Toronto. 

The last bright spot worth mentioning is Michael Wacha, who looked superb against Minnesota on Easter Sunday.  He allowed no runs, striking out 5 through 5 and located his pitches well all afternoon.  He did exceptionally well with his Cutter, which he used almost 21.5% of the time, up from 8% against Detroit.  He’ll regress back towards the mean, as his 0.93 ERA is of course not sustainable, but this gamble by the Red Sox front office looks to be paying out.  

So no, the Red Sox strength is not in their pitching staff.  Yes, the Red Sox pitching will struggle at times and yes, again, our biggest “pick up” down the stretch is going to be getting a healthy Chris Sale back, hopefully in June.  We’re in the toughest division in baseball again, with 4 teams all picked to have identical records of 88-74, but with all of our issues we are currently above .500, sharing the lead in the East with New York and Toronto at 6-5.  We are going to be fine.