The 2023 NBA draft lottery takes place Tuesday May 16th at 8 p.m.

With the lottery just days away, I’m going to use a lottery simulator – shoutout to tankathon.com, to create three of the possible draft selection scenarios for the upcoming draft and post what I think those top 5 picks would be based on team need and fit. So without further ado, below is my the first scenario for my top 5 draft projection:

1. San Antonio Spurs – Victor Wembanyama, Center

                 Courtesy of Yahoo Sports

At 7’ 2’’, Wembanyama’s combination of defensive upside as a versatile rim protector, Durant-like fluidity, and shooting mechanics make him an alien-like prospect the world hasn’t seen the likes of since maybe Kareem Abdul Jabar. This year the stats are lining up too as he averaged 21.8 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.4 APG, 3.1 BPG and .8 SPG with the Metropolitans 92 of France’s Pro-A-League, although he did shoot just 29% from deep.

Any team that gets this pick is obviously going to draft the most tantalizing prospect, probably since at least Lebron, but this could easily be one of the most exciting landing spots for the French Center. There’s obviously the whole Popovich/Duncan thing which makes this a seemingly ideal cultural fit, but Wembanyama also pretty perfectly could fill the rule of super star around Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassel, Zach Collins, and the younger Jones brother. To me, this is a sure-fire fit that would frustrate and terrify the rest of the league as much as it would excite Popovich and the San Antonio fan base.

2. Toronto Raptors – Scoot Henderson Gaurd

                  Courtesy of NBA.com

Listed as 6’2’’, 19-year-old Scoot Henderson definitely fits the bill as an athletic and dynamic small guard, bringing to mind Westbrook, Derrick Rose, and even Ja Morant. Despite his size, Henderson definitely has potential to be a playmaker of defense as well and averaged 17.6 PPG, 6.4 APG, 5.1 RPG & 1.2 SPG in just 32 MPG this past year with the G-League ignite.

It’s seem wild, that a team that competed in the play-in with Toronto’s level of talent could end up with the second overall pick, but while unlikely it’s entirely possible so I’ll run with it. This was a tough one, while Amen Thompson provide more size and fist the Raptor bill more seamlessly, I think it makes sense for the Raptors to go for the G-League seasoned Henderson. Given Vanvleet comes back, it’s true the pair would make for a smaller back-court which is specifically tougher on the defensive end, but I think between Barnes, Anunoby, and Siakam you have enough size and defensive versatility for it to work. Vanvleet’s shooting and ability to go off of the ball pairs nicely with Henderson. While Henderson’s shooting albeit hasn’t been great: he shot 27% from three, statistically it’s still better than Thompson’s 23% off very similar attempts per game and I believe Henderson’s low percentages stem more from shot choice as where Amen is still figuring out how to shoot. While the Raptors continue to be a team filled with talent that struggles to find a way to fit together cohesively, Henderson will at the very least add to their athleticism and ability to thrive both ways in transition.

3. Portland Trailblazers – Brandon Miller, Tall Wing (A 3 who could realistically fill roles 2-4 as needed)

                  Courtesy of the Athletic

6’9’’ Sharp-Shooter Brandon Miller turned heads in his freshman year at Alabama this year despite his team’s surprising exit at the sweet sixteen. Miller averaged 18.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.9 APG, and .9 SPG and BPG while shooting 38% from three while drawing plenty of comparisons the Clippers own Paul George as a shooting wing with play-making upside.

The Trailblazers are armed with scoring guards and while they certainly could use a competent defender from those positions such as the Thompsons, I think Miller by far makes the most sense. To have this kind of size and knockdown shooting with Simons and Lillard in the backcourt would be lethal and I believe Miller has the size and athleticism to continue to grow as a multi-position defender. As Dam continues to grow older by the year as well and this team invested last year in the raw talent of Shaedon Sharpe, who like Simons is absolutely a shoot first guard, I think Miller’s upside as a play-maker would be huge here. He’s noted in interviews that he gets most excited when he creates opportunities for his teammates to score and I believe Portland’s young guards as well as their older front-court will be more than happy to take them.

4. Charlotte Hornets – Amen Thompson, Big Guard

          Courtesy of Houston Chronicle

At 6’7 Amen Thompson is a two-way mega athlete with insurmountable playmaking upside who can slot comfortably into either guard position. Averaging 16.4 PPG, 5.9 APG & RPG, 2.3 SPG, and .9 BPG this past season with Overtime Elite, his combination of elite athleticism, defensive prowess, scoring ability, and top-notch play-making at his height makes for a truly unique NBA prospect.

I think this actually a no brainer for Charlotte at the four spot if Thompson is still available which for sure is a big if. Lamello is a decent enough shooter from deep who’s only going to get better most likely and both are such versatile playmakers and shot creators I believe they could figure it out and work together seamlessly. They also make for a big backcourt, which can’t be a bad thing a biggest plus for Thompson here, in my opinion, is the defensive upside he can provide next to Lamello as a potential second star. Even if Thompson’s shooting doesn’t develop as hoped, this makes for a talented duo and as a worst case scenario Terry Rozier could make for a solid scoring sixth-man if he isn’t traded in this scenario.

5.Detroit Pistons – Anthony Black, Big Guard

                    Courtesy of KAIT8

A 6’7’’ 19-year-old two-way guard out Arkansas, Black’s offensive adaptability, connective passing, and ability to play the floor-general role as needed bring to mind Josh Giddey, but his similarly adaptive defensive play could draw comparisons to pre-injury Lonzo Ball. Having averaged 12.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.9 APG, and 2.1 SPG his freshman year, he did have the highest three point shot percentage among the three guards on this list this year at 30.1% off of 2.6 attempts.

I think this would be a tough spot for Detroit to be, especially when this part of the lottery is likely to be so guard heavy without a ton of shooting. While I think they would maybe either trade up or trade out here, I’ll make a pick anyways and don’t think this is entirely impossible.  I initially leaned Jarace Walker, but I think having another player who isn’t an established shooter who would likely slot in your starting lineup would be tough despite the versatile defense he could bring. And Black brings not just defensive versatility, but in fact his general versatility is what I believe ultimately makes him the best choice here. He could slot pretty seamlessly as a supplementary back-up for Detroit’s young guard duo: He can easily play off the ball next to Cade and add secondary play making while with Ivey I could easily picture him as needed taking over the primary ball-handling position when the team needs to settle a bit. While the shooting isn’t great, you’re already dealing with that with the guard positions while hoping it comes along as these players grow in the NBA and you also have some shooting in other positions with Bogdanvic and Isaiah Stewart (at least, that seems to be the goal with beef-stew). It’s not a perfect fit and I think the best fit in the top 5 is by far Brandon Miller, but I would love to see what not only Black and Cunningham could do together, but how the two could help settle and unlock Ivey as he going to have to learn to adjust after a more freelance rookie season.