6. Dallas Mavericks

Record: 48-34

Power-rating: 8

While former Houston Rocket Christian Wood has been rumored to be a non-winning player who puts up empty stats, he’ll get the opportunity to prove everyone wrong and make an impact next to Luka although coach Jason Kidd’s decision to have him come off the bench is unexpected to say the least. 

After going to the Western Conference Finals last year, Luka proved that he is now the type of top-5-in-the-league player that can turn any type of team into a relative contender. And while this team has always lacked a proper second star (Brunson was the closest, but his strengths coincided too much with Luka’s too really be a true second to him) they’ve done exactly what you do when you have one of the best shot creators, scorers, and play-makers in the league without other stars to soften the load: surround that player with shooters and defenders. This worked wonders in the regular season as the Mavericks finished 52-30 last season while boasting the number six ranked defense in the NBA, which is impressive as defense certainly isn’t Luka’s strong suit. This was enough in the regular season and it was in fact enough to beat a lack-luster high win team like the Phoenix Suns, but it wasn’t nearly enough to win a play-off series against a fully loaded and experienced winning team like the Golden State Warriors.

And then Jalen Brunson left. While he was certainly their second best player, I actually don’t think that he’s as big of a loss as people think for this team as is, although the fact they didn’t get to sign him in order to get value for him moving to another team hurts for sure. I think Dinwiddie and Hardaway Jr. should be able to at least do some version as to what Brunson would do as the secondary guard and fill-in for Luka. I mostly believe this can work because the Mavericks added Christian Wood who at least for now can fill Brunson’s role as the pseudo second star on this team.

I say pseudo-star because I don’t know that either Brunson or Wood are that and not just third guys or just very good starters. I do, however, think Wood is a better partner for Luka than he’s had thus far as he’s never actually had a big he can dish to and Wood’s a very versatile scorer who can make the most out of the space Luka creates. To me Wood’s just another guy you have to worry about on top of Luka and they can always dish it out to the arsenal of shooters the Mavericks keep on deck. While some argue Wood is a losing player I’d argue he’s never played with winning players as still a relatively young guy, let alone guys like Luka. Personally, as good as Jalen Green will be in the NBA as a scorer, I’d have been really frustrated watching him launch up any shot he can muster through coverage without so much as looking to see who’s open as an established 20 points per game scorer. This year is going to be the make or break year for Wood as an invaluable NBA player and I personally think he’s likely to pass with flying colors because of his talent level and Luka if nothing else.

While Wood’s a great start and I’m certain Luka’s only going to get better this year while possibly making a run for the MVP award, I still don’t think Luka quite has what he needs around him to turn the Mavericks into a top 3-5 team in the NBA, though certainly he has brought them to being just outside of that tier. I think this team is better than the Suns and I think they can probably at least upset the Grizzlies in a playoff series, but because they have to rely so much on the aptitude of one player and it’s going to ultimately take time for Wood to consistently perform at the level he’s going to need to for this team to consistently beat the best teams in the league, especially on nights when Luka’s a little gassed, I have them just staying in the fringe of guaranteed playoff teams at number six. 

5. Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 49-33

Power-Rating: 8

Although initially hoped to be for a shorter duration, it now appears the Grizzlies defensive anchor could be on the IR list until as late as January. While this team runs a solid system that’s allowing their back-up to shine for now, this team is going to need Jaren Jackson Jr. in order to be a top team. 

I know with a young successful team like this, there’s always the fear that they’ll have a take-a-step back year after a very dominant one. While I don’t think they’re going to win quite as many games as last season, I don’t think this will be the case for this team as they not only appear to have a system that works even when their star players are out, but they have also have probably the most electrifying young star in the league: Ja Morant.

Sure this team won without him, but again I believe that’s because of the way this team plays. For spurts, they can plug any of their players to fill in these holes with fairly successful results. My notion here is proving to, at this time, be true with Santi Aldama slotting into the starting lineup so effectively while Jackson Jr. is out. To me, while there arguably are a handful of players currently better than the sky’s the limit for the just 23-year-old point guard and I believe personally he’s going to be out for blood this season because that is just the kind of player he is. 

The team also has one of the best three-point-shooters in the league, Desmond Bane, as well as players who fill their roles extremely effectively such as Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams who will help this team stay more than afloat while Jackson recovers. On top of all of this, they also have a bevy of young players I really like who definitely could play important roles in games to come such as Zaire Willams, Rookie David Roddy, and even Kenneth Lofton Jr., the stout and undrafted big coming out of Louisville Tech who made a splash when he shut down no. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren in a summer league game despite being only 6’7. While I do think Jackson Jr. Being out is going to hurt them win-wise a little bit and will certainly hurt them if his injury resurfaces for the play-offs, I’m still pretty confident this team will stay just within the 50-win marker and top 5 placing in their respective conference. 

4. Phoenix Suns 

Record: 50-32

Rating: 7

Courtesy of si.com

Having been up for resigning this past season and being refused the max contract until it was offered by the Pacers and the Suns swooped in at the last minute to match without a word to him, DeAndre Ayton has got to have some feelings of resentment towards his team, even with Robert Sarver gone. Not to mention the apparent animosity Booker, Paul, and Williams had towards him for alleged lack of motivation in the team’s playoff collapse vs. the Mavericks. 

Between their monumental playoff collapse after being by far the best regular season team last year, the Robert Sarver scandal, and now role-player Jae Crowder demanding a trade, this team has been all over sports news so I’m gonna try to keep this short as I think we’re all tired of talking about this team. There was a very brief time I thought the Suns had a chance to win the finals last year, but last year’s performance convinced me otherwise. I’ll be honest: I don’t think much of this team as a play-off contender, which is why their power rating is lower than both the Mavericks and Grizzlies. Their best and most reliable player is 37 years old, I’ve never really thought of Devin Booker as much more than a volume scorer, and Ayton hasn’t shown any interest in being more than the very adequate role-center and third option he currently is.  

It was apparent this team needed more defense and three-point-shooting after losing to the Mavericks in the playoffs (I don’t care that they beat them in the first game: Cool, but Booker & crew have already proven they can win games that don’t matter) who did both of those thing extremely well last season and Jae Crowder being out of the rotation for good definitely leaves some want for defense, although Cam Johnson is probably at the time more suited for that starting role and certainly provides some shooting. Mikael Bridges is also a great defender who shoots fairly well, but it still just isn’t enough with this roster as is and I just don’t trust Booker or Ayton to bring their team to the finals, although maybe they’ll prove me wrong.

One thing I will give the Suns is that they have proven as a team they can win a lot of games in the regular season and I do have a lot of confidence in Monty Williams’ ability to steer the ship. As such, I have them falling to a respectable 5th and 50 wins this year as I just don’t think they can be as good as the three teams I have ahead of them with the current climate in Phoenix as it is.